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Title: Developing an extensible solution for modelling daytime population movement

Abstract: There is a need, particularly within the social sciences, to predict short-term (i.e. daily) population movements, for a variety of applications such as urban planning, health and safety and resource provision. A prototype population model entitled ExIST (Extensible Integrated Spatio-Temporal model) was created for the Southampton Unitary Authority (UA), to plot primary school children travelling to school, as an example. The study was designed to test the usefulness of freely available data on population counts, areal boundaries and school locations. The children within the model were allocated to nearby schools, and subsequently moved along a temporal and spatial plane. When the model was run, ExIST successfully produced maps and statistics for pupils in transit at any point during the day. This study showed that whilst there remain some accuracy questions, a generic (and adaptable) model can be produced of these movements, using existing data sources without additional primary data collection.

Full version available here
Further model output images

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